Most Bayes rule examples use only one experiment. For example, "What is the probability that a person who tested positive for the disease actually has the disease?" or "What is the probability of a coin being fair if it lands 7 heads in 10 tosses?". The primary use of Bayes rule is to update our beliefs in the face of new evidence and in this video I show how our beliefs are updated after each experiment in a series of 5 experiments. I use MS Excel to do the cumbersome calculations and focus on showing the utility of the rule for updating beliefs (probabilities) instead.
Most Bayes rule examples use only one experiment. For example, "What is the probability that a person who tested positive for the disease actually has the disease?" or "What is the probability of a coin being fair if it lands 7 heads in 10 tosses?". The primary use of Bayes rule is to update our beliefs in the face of new evidence and in this video I show how our beliefs are updated after each experiment in a series of 5 experiments. I use MS Excel to do the cumbersome calculations and focus on showing the utility of the rule for updating beliefs (probabilities) instead.
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